The geo-temporal evolution of violence in civil conflicts: A micro analysis of conflict diffusion on a new event data set

Existing works on diffusion fail to account for the incapacitating effects conflict events may have operational capability of combatant sides and how these determine evolution a conflict. I hypothesize that it is those with losses state side are likely be associated geo-temporal spillovers, whereas insurgency less future mayhem in their vicinity. To test my arguments, first introduce new, comprehensive detailed event dataset long-running civil Turkey. The Turkish State–PKK Conflict Event Database (TPCONED) includes exact date county-level location fatal armed between rebel organization PKK since its very beginning 1984 information casualties. then employ split population bi-probit model which allows me comprehensively depict geotemporal by acknowledging, estimating accounting variation underlying proneness across locations as latent variable shapes events. results statistical analyses offer support hypotheses reveal evolve over space time conditioned damages suffered sides. demonstrate robustness matched sample obtain employing Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) data.